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Tifia Daily Market Analytics

Discussion in 'Forex Trading Discussion' started by TifiaFX, Mar 14, 2017.

  1. TifiaFX

    TifiaFX ECZ Member

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    S&P 500: need new drivers to continue the rally

    14/01/2020


    The risks of escalating the conflict between the US and Iran have declined. Investors are waiting for the signing of the “first phase” of a trade agreement between the US and China on Wednesday. The parties also intend to continue negotiations on a broader economic cooperation and agreed to hold negotiations twice a year with the aim of promoting economic reforms and resolving disputes. The strongest negative factor and risks holding back the growth of the global economy seem to be starting to decline.

    At the same time, it should be noted that the signing of this trade agreement is already mainly taken into account in prices. Therefore, to continue the rally in the stock market, additional drivers are needed.

    On Tuesday, the volatility of the dollar and US stock indexes may rise at 13:30 (GMT), when the latest data on consumer inflation in the US will be published. The Core Consumer Price Index (Core CPI), which is a key indicator for measuring inflation and changing consumer preferences, is expected to increase +0.2% in December (as it did in the previous two months). If the data for December is weaker than the forecast, then the dollar will most likely respond with a short-term, but strong decline, and stock indices are likely to rise.

    According to the latest data from the US Department of Labor published on Friday, private sector wages rose 2.9% in December compared with the same period last year. This is the weakest growth since July 2018, which, according to investors, does not raise concerns about rising inflation. So, the Fed will not raise interest rates to curb inflation. This is a positive fact for buyers in the stock market.

    The S&P 500 index maintains long-term positive dynamics, trading above key support levels of 3010.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 3068.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the growth since December 2018 and mark 2335.0). Long positions are preferred.

    In an alternative scenario, and after the breakdown of the short-term support level 3255.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), the correctional decline of S&P 500 can continue to the support levels 3196.0 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 3168.0 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart). However, only a breakdown of support levels of 3010.0 and 2926.0 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%) will increase the risks of the bullish trend S&P 500 breaking.

    Support Levels: 3255.0, 3196.0, 3168.0, 3100.0, 3068.0, 3010.0, 2926.0

    Resistance Levels: 3294.0, 3300.0



    Trading Recommendations


    Sell Stop 3254.0. Stop-Loss 3296.0. Goals 3196.0, 3168.0, 3100.0, 3068.0, 3010.0, 2926.0

    Buy Stop 3296.0. Stop-Loss 3254.0. Goals 3300.0, 3350.0, 3400.0

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    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
     
  2. TifiaFX

    TifiaFX ECZ Member

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    GBP/USD: the pound remains under pressure from disappointing macro data

    15/01/2020


    After the release of fresh UK macro data (at 09:30 GMT), GBP / USD continued to decline on Wednesday, trading at the moment near the 1.2995 mark and the EMA50 support level on the daily chart.

    The dynamics of the pound, which has already fallen by about 2% since the beginning of the year, is determined by weak macro data coming from the UK and the continuing uncertainty about Brexit.

    The UK should leave the EU on January 31, although access to the EU markets in their current form will remain at least until the end of this year, while the terms of a new agreement are being worked out.

    However, weak economic data suggests that uncertainty about Brexit harms the economy more than many observers expected.

    Following comments by Bank of England management and disappointing macro data this week, market participants sharply increased the likelihood of policy easing at a Bank of England meeting on January 30. If the bank really lowers the rate (as predicted by some economists, by 0.25%), then the drop in the pound in the absence of progress on Brexit is likely to accelerate.

    Now the attention of market participants has shifted to the signing of a trade agreement between the United States and China. The signing process will begin at 16:00 (GMT). The White House will evaluate the progress made and, possibly, reduce duties on goods from China again, but not earlier than 10 months after the signing of the trade agreement planned for today. Existing duties on Chinese imports will remain in effect until the end of the US presidential election in November 2020.

    Despite today's decline in the pound, above the key support level of 1.2800 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart), medium-term positive dynamics of GBP / USD remains.

    If GBP / USD returns to the zone above the resistance level 1.3050 (EMA200 on the 4-hour and 1-hour chart), the pair will continue to grow towards the resistance levels 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the GBP/USD reduce in the wave that started in July 2014, near the level of 1.7200), 1.3340 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).

    Support Levels: 1.2995, 1.2955, 1.2910, 1.2800

    Resistance Levels: 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3175, 1.3210, 1.3340, 1.3510, 1.3960, 1.4350, 1.4580, 1.5080, 1.5190



    Trading Scenarios


    Sell Stop 1.2985. Stop-Loss 1.3055. Take-Profit 1.2955, 1.2910, 1.2800

    Buy Stop 1.3055. Stop-Loss 1.2985. Take-Profit 1.3090, 1.3175, 1.3210, 1.3340, 1.3510, 1.3960, 1.4350, 1.4580, 1.5080, 1.5190

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    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
     
  3. TifiaFX

    TifiaFX ECZ Member

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    DJIA: positive fundamental background

    16/01/2020


    Despite the fact that the signing of the “first phase” trade agreement between the United States and China has largely been won back by markets, investors enthusiastically welcomed this event.

    US President Donald Trump called the deal a crucial and unprecedented step in relations with China, leading to "fair and mutually beneficial trade".

    Speaking to reporters, Trump's economic adviser Larry Kudlow called the signed agreement the best deal ever made between the United States and China.

    The United States agreed to lower duties on Chinese goods worth $ 120 billion to 7.5% and to cancel the previously planned introduction of new duties on imports from China.

    Meanwhile, as Trump had previously stated, the remaining fees will be used in working out the “second phase” agreement.

    If, in the course of fulfilling the obligations undertaken, one of the parties violates them, then the infringed party will be entitled to take “proportional measures of protection”, which, in essence, means the restoration of duties.

    So far, markets have ignored the likelihood of possible complications during the elaboration of the “second stage” of the trade agreement.

    As the Beige Book published last Wednesday, the U.S. economy continued to grow at a moderate pace in the last six weeks of 2019. “Expectations regarding short-term prospects remain moderately favorable in the country”, the Fed said.

    Thus, the fundamental factor speaks in favor of the further growth of US stock indices and the DJIA index as well.

    In an alternative scenario, the first signal for sales will be a breakdown of the short-term support level of 28855.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart). In case of further decline, the targets will be the support levels 28420.0 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 27400.0 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), 27100.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). Above the key support levels of 27400.0, 27100.0, the long-term upward dynamics of the DJIA remains.

    Support Levels: 28855.0, 28420.0, 28000.0, 27400.0, 27100.0, 25945.0, 25050.0, 24600.0, 23970.0

    Resistance Levels: 29180.0



    Trading Scenarios


    Buy Stop 29205.0. Stop-Loss 28850.0. Take-Profit 29300.0, 30000.0

    Sell Stop 28850.0. Stop-Loss 29205.0. Take-Profit 28420.0, 28000.0, 27400.0

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    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
     
  4. TifiaFX

    TifiaFX ECZ Member

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    EUR/USD: the pair is again under pressure

    17/01/2020


    The weakening Euro and lower EUR / USD continued on Friday. On Thursday and Friday, the EUR / USD pair has broken important support levels of 1.1138 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 1.1122 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart, ЕМА144 on the daily chart) and continued to decline towards the support level 1.1109 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart) .

    In case of breakdown of the support level 1.1109 and further decrease, the goal will be the local support level 1.1064. A deeper decline or resumption of growth will depend on the fundamental background.

    As follows from the protocols published on Thursday from the December meeting of the ECB, the bank's leaders promised not to raise the key interest rate until inflation reaches the target level (slightly less than 2%), which is unlikely in the coming months and, possibly, years. The executives also said that even with negative rates, bank returns will be on the positive side, noting that interest rates can be reduced even more if necessary.

    At the same time, previously published macro data showed that at the beginning of 2020, the US fundamental indicators supporting consumer spending (low unemployment and rising earnings) remain stable. According to the report of the Ministry of Commerce, retail sales in December grew by 0.3%. As you know, consumer spending is more than 2/3 of US GDP.

    Today, market participants will follow the publication at 15:00 (GMT) of the preliminary consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan in January. It is expected that this indicator will be released in January with a value of 99.4 (against 99.3 in December). This is a high indicator, which indicates the growth of the economy and the confidence of American consumers in the economic development of the country. The publication of the indicator is also likely to support the dollar.

    Below the key resistance level of 1.1155 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), long-term negative dynamics of EUR / USD remains and short positions are preferred.

    In an alternative scenario, a signal to resume purchases will be a growth into the zone above resistance levels 1.1122, 1.1138 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).

    Support Levels: 1.1109, 1.1064, 1.0995, 1.0940, 1.0900

    Resistance Levels: 1.1120, 1.1138, 1.1155, 1.1205, 1.1240, 1.1285



    Trading Recommendations


    Sell Stop 1.1090. Stop-Loss 1.1125. Take-Profit 1.1064, 1.1000, 1.0940, 1.0900

    Buy Stop 1.1125. Stop-Loss 1.1090. Take-Profit 1.1155, 1.1200, 1.1240, 1.1285

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    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
     
  5. TifiaFX

    TifiaFX ECZ Member

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    GBP/USD: Current Dynamics

    After the publication of data from the retail sector in the UK and the USA last Friday, GBP / USD continues to decline today for the second day in a row.

    In the UK, retail sales in December fell by -0.6% in the country (v.s. a forecast of +0.7%), and in the United States, according to the report of the Ministry of Commerce, they grew by 0.3% compared to the previous month.

    Strong retail sales in the 4th quarter will have a positive impact on the growth rate of US GDP, economists say, expecting GDP growth in the 4th quarter at 2.5 - 2.6%.

    At the same time, weak macro data recently received from the UK reinforce expectations of a softening of the Bank of England policy at a meeting on January 30.

    In the USA today is a day off on the occasion of the celebration of the birthday of Martin L. King. Therefore, trading volumes during the american trading session will be low, which, however, does not exclude the possibility of a sharp increase in volatility in the "thin market".

    The volatility in the GBP / USD pair may again rise sharply tomorrow after the publication (at 09:30 GMT) of the UK labor market data. It is likely that the data will indicate a slowdown in wage growth and that unemployment is no longer dropping, although it is close to the lows over the past few years.

    Meanwhile, the GBP / USD pair broke through the lower border of the rising channel on the daily chart and is trading below important resistance levels of 1.2995 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart), 1.3050 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour and 1-hour charts).

    In case of breakdown of the support levels 1.2955, 1.2910 (local lows), a further decrease in GBP / USD is likely.

    Below resistance levels 1.3120 (ЕМА144 on the weekly chart), 1.3050, short positions are preferred.

    Support Levels: 1.2955, 1.2910, 1.2800

    Resistance Levels: 1.2995, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3120, 1.3210, 1.3340, 1.3510, 1.3960, 1.4350, 1.4580, 1.5080, 1.5190



    Trading Scenarios


    Sell Stop 1.2945. Stop-Loss 1.3010. Take-Profit 1.2910, 1.2800

    Buy Stop 1.3010. Stop-Loss 1.2945. Take-Profit 1.2995, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3120, 1.3210, 1.3340, 1.3510

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    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
     
  6. TifiaFX

    TifiaFX ECZ Member

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    AUD/USD: the pair remains under pressure

    22/01/2020


    Last year, the RBA cut interest rates three times amid a trade conflict between the US and China and weak growth in the Australian economy. In December, the RBA left the key interest rate unchanged, at a record low of 0.75%. Now, labor market conditions, household consumption growth rates, and company investment are key to the February meeting of the RBA, after the US and China entered into a “first phase” trade agreement last week.

    RBA managing director Philip Lowe in November admitted the possibility of further stimulating the Australian economy after the rate drops below 0.25%. In the Australian economy, consumer demand is now declining and in recession. Personal consumption accounts for almost 60% of GDP, so the RBA always focuses on spending in stores. Without rapid growth in personal consumption, employment in the labor market will slow down, and the investment market will cool.

    On Wednesday, Westpac reported a decline in consumer confidence in the country. The consumer confidence index fell in January by -1.8% (against the forecast of -0.8% and after falling by -1.9% in December).

    The Australian dollar continued to decline after the publication of this index at the beginning of today's trading day. A day earlier, the Australian dollar was pressured by information about the outbreak of coronavirus in China.

    The Australian economy is expected to create +15,000 new jobs in December, while unemployment remains at 5.2%. Data from the Australian labor market will be released Thursday at 00:30 (GMT). Weak GDP growth, low personal consumption and weak retail sales reinforce expectations of further interest rate cuts at a meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia on February 4, which will put downward pressure on AUD.


    On Wednesday, AUD / USD is trading below the key resistance level of 0.6910 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) and below the important resistance level of 0.6881 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts, ЕМА144 on the daily chart).

    A breakdown of the local support level of 0.6828 (today's and monthly lows) will confirm a downward trend and a return to the global downtrend, in which AUD / USD has been since August 2011.

    A signal for the development of an alternative scenario could be a breakdown of the local resistance level of 0.6850. However, the possible growth of AUD / USD is likely to be limited by the resistance level of 0.6910 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).

    Support Levels: 0.6828, 0.6802, 0.6745, 0.6700, 0.6670, 0.6600, 0.6300

    Resistance Levels: 0.6850, 0.6881, 0.6910, 0.6938



    Trading Scenarios


    Sell Stop 0.6825. Stop-Loss 0.6860. Take-Profit 0.6802, 0.6745, 0.6700, 0.6670, 0.6600, 0.6300

    Buy Stop 0.6860. Stop-Loss 0.6825. Take-Profit 0.6881, 0.6910

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    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
     
  7. TifiaFX

    TifiaFX ECZ Member

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    EUR/USD: on the eve of the ECB meeting

    17/01/2020


    Since the opening of today's trading day, the EUR / USD pair has been trading in a narrow range on the eve of the publication of the ECB's decision on rates.

    At the beginning of today's European session, the EUR / USD pair is trading near 1.1090, below strong short-term resistance levels of 1.1108 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 1.1115 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).

    Below the key resistance level of 1.1150 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), the long-term negative dynamics of EUR / USD remains, which speaks in favor of short positions.

    At the same time, the ECB leadership today may announce an increase in inflation expectations and reiterate that it is "closely monitoring the potential side effects" of negative interest rates on the economy.

    The ECB's decision on rates will be published at 12:45 (GMT), and the press conference will begin today at 13:30 (GMT). A sharp increase in volatility is likely to occur during this period of time, especially if unexpected statements regarding the monetary policy of the bank are followed by ECB management. Negative interest rates are likely to continue for some time to come, but the ECB may revise them at some point.

    Any statements by the ECB management that may indicate the possibility of moving away from the bank’s extra-soft monetary policy towards tightening it will be regarded by market participants as a signal to resume purchases of the euro, which will also cause the EUR / USD pair to grow.

    In this case, after the breakdown of the resistance level, 1.1150 EUR / USD will go towards the resistance levels 1.1205, 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the upward correction to the fall of the pair from 1.3870 in May 2014 to 1.0480 reached in March 2015). A signal for the implementation of this scenario will be a growth into the zone above the resistance level of 1.1115.

    The breakdown of the local support level of 1.1064 may provoke a deeper decline in EUR / USD.

    Support Levels: 1.1064, 1.0995, 1.0940, 1.0900

    Resistance Levels: 1.1108, 1.1115, 1.1150, 1.1205, 1.1240, 1.1285



    Trading Recommendations


    Sell Stop 1.1060. Stop-Loss 1.1115. Take-Profit 1.1000, 1.0940, 1.0900

    Buy Stop 1.1115. Stop-Loss 1.1060. Take-Profit 1.1150, 1.1200, 1.1240, 1.1285

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    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
     
  8. TifiaFX

    TifiaFX ECZ Member

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    NZD/USD: commodity demand falls

    24/01/2020


    The New Zealand dollar received support today at the beginning of the Asian trading session after the publication of consumer inflation data. The consumer price index (CPI) in the country in the 4th quarter increased by +1.9% (after rising by +1.5% in the 3rd quarter, with the forecast of +1.8%). The NZD / USD rose in the first half of today's trading day, reaching an intraday high near 0.6628.

    Meanwhile, commodity prices continue to decline amid the spread of the deadly virus in China.

    While the NZD / USD is trading above the key support level of 0.6545 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), its long-term dynamics remains.

    A signal for resuming sales will be a breakdown of the support level of 0.6613 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart, EMA50 on the 4-hour chart) with the target at the support level of 0.6598 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart and the bottom line of the ascending channel on the daily chart).

    The breakdown of the support level of 0.6428 (EMA144 on the daily chart) and a further decline will indicate the resumption of the global downtrend NZD / USD and the relevance of short positions with long-term goals at support levels 0.6260, 0.6200, 0.6100.

    On the other hand, a breakdown of local resistance levels of 0.6635, 0.6665 could trigger an alternative growth scenario in the upward channel on the daily chart with targets at resistance levels of 0.6770 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), 0.6865 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and the Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction in the global wave of the pair decline from the level of 0.8820).

    Meanwhile, more active growth of the New Zealand dollar at the moment should not be expected, according to economists. Investors are gearing up for a slowdown in China, the largest consumer of commodities. Rising concerns about declining commodity demand will put pressure on commodity currencies, including the New Zealand dollar.

    Support Levels: 0.6613, 0.6698, 0.6575, 0.6545, 0.6528, 0.6500, 0.6485, 0.6440, 0.6400, 0.6322, 0.6260, 0.6200, 0.6100

    Resistance Levels: 0.6635, 0.6665, 0.6770, 0.6865



    Trading Scenarios


    Sell Stop 0.6590. Stop-Loss 0.6640. Take-Profit 0.6575, 0.6545, 0.6528, 0.6500, 0.6485, 0.6440, 0.6400, 0.6322, 0.6260, 0.6200

    Buy Stop 0.6640. Stop-Loss 0.6590. Take-Profit 0.6665, 0.6770, 0.6865

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    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com