Daily Market Analysis from Investizo.com

Discussion in 'Signal Service' started by investizo.com, May 12, 2022.

  1. investizo.com

    investizo.com ECZ Member

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    General analysis USDCAD for 15.07.2022

    Current dynamics


    The USD/CAD pair opened today's trading session with a decline. To complete his strong reflection during his recent sessions.After rising from its weekly low to its highest level since November 2020 at 1,32235.

    Looking at the reasons for the pair's volatility in recent sessions, the pair's decline came after the Bank of Canada raised the interest rate by 100 basis points to 2.5% in June, compared to market expectations for a rate increase of 75 basis points. The Bank of Canada statement said: With demand clearly increasing in the economy, inflation rising and widening, and more businesses and consumers expecting high inflation to continue for longer, the Board of Governors has decided to step up the path to higher interest rates.

    However, the US macroeconomic data, which mainly indicates rising inflation to increase the chances that the Federal Reserve will implement a 100 basis point increase in July, came to be the main reason for the pair to reach its highest level in two years.

    The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand in the US rose to 11.3% on an annual basis in June from 10.9% in May, beating expectations of 10.7%. Additionally, there were 244,000 initial jobless claims in the week ending July 9 versus the previous week's reading of 235,000 and market expectations of 235,000. Weekly jobless claims were the highest in five months. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June jumped higher 40-year level at 9.1% y/y vs. 8.8% expected and 8.6% previously.

    On the other hand, some members of the Federal Reserve came in conflicting statements regarding the rate of interest rate hike in the upcoming meeting, as Federal Reserve member Rafael Bostic said this week that higher than expected inflation rates put the Fed funds rate increase by 100 basis points on the table. Another Fed member, Christopher Waller, said a 75 basis point hike at this meeting makes us neutral, adding that I think it makes sense that we have a stagnation in growth where it drops below the long-term average but doesn't turn negative.

    Looking at the most important events affecting the pair today, attention will turn to the US retail sales, which is expected to rise 0.8% monthly in June from -0.3% recorded in May, and will precede the preliminary readings of the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for the month of July, expected 49.9 vs. 50.0 previously.

    Support and resistance levels

    On the 4 hour chart, the instrument failed to consolidate at the upper side of the Bollinger Bands. The indicator is oriented sideways and the price range has shrunk, indicating that the current trend is about to change.The momentum chart is above the 100 level, which is giving sell signals. The Envelopes indicator gives clear buy signals.

    ✔️ Support levels: 1.30800, 1.30350, 1.29925.
    ✔️ Resistance levels: 1.31200, 1.31675, 1.32150.

    Trading scenarios

    ✔️ Long positions should be opened at the 1.31200 with a target of 1.31675 and a stop loss at 1.30800. Implementation period: 1-3 days.
    ✔️ Short positions can be opened at the level of 1.30800 with a target of 1.30350 and a stop-loss at the level of 1.31200. Implementation period: 1-3 days.
    [​IMG]


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    Disclaimer:
    This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument.
     
  2. investizo.com

    investizo.com ECZ Member

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    General analysis XAUUSD for 19.07.2022

    Current dynamics


    The XAUUSD continues to trade actively and resumes its downtrend towards the strong psychological support at 1700.00.

    Gold corrected on Monday at 1723.82, the highest level that this traditional safe haven asset reached, but by late afternoon the instrument returned to its downtrend. This price movement can be easily explained by the weakening of the U.S. dollar, caused by a decline in traders enthusiasm for the recently expected interest rate hike of 100 basis points at once. Whether it will actually happen, or the rate will be raised by the previously announced 75 basis points, we will know at the end of July during the next meeting of the members of the Federal Reserve, which will be held on the 27th.

    The Australian National Bank claimed it expects the downtrend in gold to continue, should it break the support at $1675.00, it will continue southward at 1600.00. According to Laffer, a former adviser to President Reagan, the current situation with unprecedentedly high inflation in this century is caused by excessive monetary stimulation of the economy during the pandemic coronavirus and the only way to correct this imbalance is in the further tightening of monetary policy and reduction of the money supply, which will continue to lead to the strengthening of the dollar and lowering of the XAUUSD quotes.

    At the same time, the analyst Hemke thinks that the FRS will be forced to switch over to the dovish policy as some experts believe that the economy is formally entering into recession, the citizens savings are fading, and the increase in consumer prices under an expensive dollar negatively affects the citizens attitude towards the representatives of the Democratic Party, which positions are hardly strong at the moment, which is an unacceptable luxury for the acting President on the threshold of the elections.

    Traders interested in dealing this dynamic pair in the near future should pay attention to the following macroeconomic news: The number of construction permits issued tomorrow, Secondary housing market sales (June) and US crude oil inventories the day after tomorrow.

    Support and resistance levels

    Alligator is hungry: his mouth is wide open, his jaw (blue line) hovers high above his lips and teeth (green and red lines), the instrument is in a downtrend. The nearest fractal below the alligators teeth (red line) is at 1704.93. Awesome Oscillator (AO) and Accelerator Oscillator (AC) are both in the red area, the bars are close to the zero level, which is a strong confirmatory sell signal.

    ✔️ Support levels: 1700.40, 1693.30, 1683.60.
    ✔️ Resistance levels: 1722.00, 1716.00, 1710.70.

    Trading scenarios

    ✔️ Long positions should be opened at the 1710.70 with a target of 1716.00 and a stop loss at 1705.00. Implementation period: 1-3 days.
    ✔️ Short positions can be opened at the level of 1700.40 with a target of 1693.30 and a stop-loss at the level of 1705.00. Implementation period: 1-3 days.
    [​IMG]

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  3. investizo.com

    investizo.com ECZ Member

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    General analysis USDCHF for 20.07.2022

    Current dynamics

    The USD/CHF pair opened today's trading session with a decline. To continue the bearish performance of the pair for the third consecutive session. As the pair witnessed yesterday, Tuesday, a strong slide from the highest level in several weeks, touched last Thursday.

    The US dollar continued its bearish path and extended its losses significantly during trading on Tuesday, with lower expectations of investors that the US Federal Reserve will tighten its monetary policy more strongly during its meeting next week, in light of the sharp decline in gasoline prices during the past month, a development that officials are likely to welcome. The Fed is concerned that expectations of high inflation may become ingrained and complicates their task of curbing price increases.

    In addition to the statements of the Fed members that came to confirm that they are committed to raising the interest rate by 75 basis points in the current July meeting to reduce bets about the Federal Reserve escalating the pace of raising interest rates.

    Whereas, Lewis Waller and James Bollader, Fed members said that they are leaning toward a 75 basis point rate increase at the next meeting, rather than a move by 100 basis points, to mitigate the negative effects on the economy.

    As data published by the US Census Bureau on Tuesday, building permits came in at 1.685 million, above expectations (1.65 million) in June, and housing starts in the United States (MoM) came in at 1.559 million, below expectations (1.585 million) in June, the rate increased Building permits changed to -0.6% in June from the previous -7%. The initial housing change rate increased from -14.4% previously to -2% in June.

    The main keys affecting the pair will be this week Initial Jobless Claims, and S&P Global Purchase Managers Index (PMI).

    Support and resistance levels

    On the 4 hour chart, the instrument is testing the consolidation at the bottom of the Bollinger Bands. The indicator is directed downward and the price range is widening, which indicates that the current trend is about to continue. The momentum chart is below the 100 level, which gives buy signals. The Envelopes indicator gives clear sell signals.

    ✔️ Support levels: 0.96800, 0.96425, 0.96050.
    ✔️ Resistance levels: 0.97150, 0.97825, 0.98350.

    Trading scenarios

    ✔️ Short positions should be opened at the 0.96800 with a target of 0.96425 and a stop loss at 0.97150. Implementation period: 1-2 days.
    ✔️ Long positions can be opened above the level of 0.97150 with a target of 0.97825 and a stop-loss at the level of 0.96800. Implementation period: 1-2 days.

    [​IMG]

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    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument.
     
  4. investizo.com

    investizo.com ECZ Member

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    General analysis AUDUSD for 27.07.2022

    Current dynamics

    AUD/USD drops to 0.69450 ahead of major macroeconomic news on the pair

    The pair AUD/USD, traditionally sensitive to the appetite for risk and dependent on it in direct relation, since the beginning of the trading week is in a downtrend, as a whole market is in an anxious condition, expecting the probable occurrence of economic recession. These concerns are dictated not only by steadily rising inflation and a consistent increase in the key rate of the U.S. Federal Reserve, but also negative forecasts about the prospects for economic growth in the whole world, including the Peoples Republic of China, heavily affected by prolonged restrictions caused by the epidemic situation around the pandemic of Covid-19. Another round of geopolitical tension in the world also affects the reduction of appetite for risk: the USA confronts China about its claims in the Taiwan issue, relations between Russia and European countries are complicated due to the news about a possible further reduction of gas supplies to the West. 

    Negative statistics were released in the USA, showing a consecutive three-month decline in consumer confidence (95.7 vs. previous 98.4), new home sales in June (0.59 million vs. previous 0.64 million).

    In Australia, experts predict the worst performance since 1990, probably in annual terms, it will reach 6.2%, which will inevitably provoke an increase in interest rates of the Reserve Bank of Australia.  The main reasons for such a surge in inflation in Australia is the energy and agricultural crisis, the global rise in prices for energy and food products.

    The meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia will be held on August 2, the main agenda is expected to raise the main interest rate to 1.35%. Experts believe that the most probable decision is to increase the rate by 50 basis points, at the same time the ceiling of its growth at the moment is forecasted at 3.35%, as the situation does not look inclined to stabilization and the cycle of tightening of the monetary policy, probably, will not end soon. The nearest step in the pairs development is for the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting, which is scheduled for July 27. Analysts expect the key rate to be raised by 75 basis points at once this time.

    Support and resistance levels

    Alligator is sleeping: the moving averages are twisted, the instrument is flat. The nearest fractal below the alligators teeth (red line) is at 0.69340. Awesome Oscillator (AO) and Accelerator Oscillator (AC) are in the gray area, showing a divergence, which is not a reliable signal to open a position.

    ✔️ Support levels: 0.69340, 0.69040, 0.68720.
    ✔️ Resistance levels: 0.70510, 0.70150, 0.69760.

    Trading scenarios

    ✔️ Short positions should be opened at the 0.96800 with a target of 0.69040 and a stop loss at 0.69550. Implementation period: 1-2 days.
    ✔️ Long positions can be opened above the level of 0.69760 with a target of 0.70150 and a stop-loss at the level of 0.69550. Implementation period: 1-2 days.

    [​IMG]




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    Analytical department investizo.com


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument.